ETF5952 - Quantitative methods for risk analysis

There is a more recent version of this academic item available.

Overview

Operations in business and government inevitably entail risk which, of course, must be incorporated into decision making. This unit presents basic quantitative methods for identifying and analysing risk - with broad applicability to areas such as finance, quality control, occupational health and safety, disaster prevention and environmental management.

Offerings

S1-01-CAULFIELD-ON-CAMPUS

S1-FF-CAULFIELD-FLEXIBLE

S2-01-CAULFIELD-ON-CAMPUS

Requisites

Prohibition

Contacts

Chief Examiner(s)

Associate Professor Tatsushi Oka

Notes

IMPORTANT NOTICE:
Scheduled teaching activities and/or workload information are subject to change in response to COVID-19, please check your Unit timetable and Unit Moodle site for more details.

Learning outcomes

On successful completion of this unit, you should be able to:

analyse risk statistically by summarising and interpreting data using techniques of descriptive statistics including the use of associated spreadsheet functions

analyse and evaluate risk by applying concepts of probability and of probability distributions

analyse and evaluate risk via Monte Carlo simulation

evaluate decision-making strategies

describe and analyse the quality of production in an industrial process, using statistical control charts.

Assessment

1 - Within semester assessment

2 - Examination

Scheduled and non-scheduled teaching activities

Laboratories

Lectures

Workload requirements

Workload

Minimum total expected workload to achieve the learning outcomes for this unit is 144 hours per semester typically comprising a mixture of scheduled learning activities and independent study. Independent study may include associated readings, assessment and preparation for scheduled activities. The unit requires on average three/four hours of scheduled activities per week. Scheduled activities may include a combination of teacher directed learning, peer directed learning and online engagement.

Learning resources

Technology resources

Palisade DecisionTools Suite
We use three software packages ( StatTools , @Risk and PrecisionTree ) from Palisade Corporation’s DecisionTools Suite 7 . Each is an “add-in” to Microsoft Excel. The DecisionTools Suite is compatible with all 32-bit and 64-bit versions of Microsoft Windows from Windows XP to Windows 10, and from Excel 2007 to Excel 2016. Palisade software is not compatible with Mac OS or Office for Mac, though it is compatible with Windows Excel and Project running on Windows emulators.

R is a free software for data analysis. For regression analysis, we will use R and RStudio.

All teaching material is oriented towards PCs. It does not cater to Apple, OS/2 Linux or Unix. (Mac users, please see some notes in the “EXCEL”.)

All students need access to Microsoft Excel with Excel’s “Data Analysis” add-in facility activated. (If this is already activated, it will appear on the Data tab in Excel.)

Other unit costs

Costs are indicative and subject to change.
Electronics, calculators and tools: $40